WBA releases results of Bank CEO Economic Conditions Survey
In the Wisconsin Bankers Association’s latest Economic Conditions Survey of Wisconsin bank CEOs, 76% of respondents rated Wisconsin’s current economic health as “excellent” or “good.” Most survey respondents (70%) predict that Wisconsin’s economy will stay about the same over the next six months and expect inflation to either stay about the same (66%) or fall (26%). The responses from this recent survey underscored themes of economic stability and resilience compared to the previous survey at the end of 2023, when 68% of respondents rated Wisconsin’s health at the time as “excellent” or “good” and responses split between predicting the economy would weaken over the next six months (44%) and predicting it would stay about the same (47%).
“WBA’s biannual survey is a valuable tool in identifying economic trends in Wisconsin thanks to the insights of bank CEOs as both financial experts and active community members,” said WBA President and CEO Rose Oswald Poels. “Bankers understand that individuals, families, and businesses continue to feel the pressure of inflation, and banks stand ready to assist their customers in weathering economic challenges.”
Among the economic bright spots cited by bank CEOs in the recent survey were increased spending levels, continued demand for construction and other diverse products and services, and strong employment and production levels. Survey respondents reported that, on average, about 11% of commercial real estate in their market area is currently vacant, indicating that Wisconsin is not as hard hit by vacancies as is seen on the national level (Moody’s Analytics reported a nearly 20% national office vacancy rate for Q4 2023). Looking ahead to the latter half of 2024, however, bank CEOs reported concerns in the agricultural sector due to grain and dairy price declines, as well as concerns surrounding a lack of employees, limiting growth in the manufacturing sector. Survey respondents also cited the upcoming election as a potential cause for pause on certain economic activity. The survey also showed that the high cost of living, rising debt, and availability and affordability of housing persist as top concerns for individuals and families for the remainder of 2024.
The mid-year 2024 survey was conducted May 21–June 21 with 66 respondents. Below is a breakdown of the survey questions and responses. Sums may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.
| Mid-Year 2024 | End-of-Year 2023 | Mid-Year 2023 | End-of-Year 2022 | |
| How would you rate the current health of the Wisconsin economy. . . | ||||
| Excellent | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% |
| Good | 71% | 62% | 68% | 69% |
| Fair | 24% | 27% | 27% | 24% |
| Poor | 0% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| In the next six months, do you expect the Wisconsin economy to. . . | ||||
| Grow | 8% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| Weaken | 23% | 44% | 48% | 72% |
| Stay the same | 70% | 47% | 52% | 28% |
| Over the next six months, do you expect inflation to. . . | ||||
| Rise | 8% | 5% | 14% | 24% |
| Fall | 26% | 48% | 44% | 51% |
| Stay about the same | 66% | 47% | 42% | 25% |
| How likely would you say a recession is in the next six months? | ||||
| Very unlikely | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| Unlikely | 43% | 18% | 5% | 3% |
| Neutral | 32% | 38% | 24% | 10% |
| Likely | 18% | 32% | 56% | 62% |
| Very likely | 6% | 9% | 15% | 25% |
| Rate the current demand in the following categories: | ||||
| Business Loans | ||||
| Excellent | 6% | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| Good | 49% | 36% | 44% | 44% |
| Fair | 40% | 52% | 48% | 46% |
| Poor | 5% | 8% | 2% | 7% |
| Commercial Real Estate Loans | ||||
| Excellent | 3% | 9% | 11% | 6% |
| Good | 37% | 30% | 33% | 34% |
| Fair | 54% | 48% | 50% | 53% |
| Poor | 6% | 12% | 6% | 7% |
| Residential Real Estate Loans | ||||
| Excellent | 6% | 0% | 5% | 4% |
| Good | 22% | 13% | 14% | 7% |
| Fair | 34% | 28% | 50% | 33% |
| Poor | 38% | 59% | 31% | 55% |
| Agricultural Loans | ||||
| Excellent | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3% |
| Good | 14% | 18% | 41% | 23% |
| Fair | 67% | 67% | 50% | 60% |
| Poor | 17% | 14% | 9% | 13% |
| Deposit | ||||
| Excellent | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Good | 20% | 18% | 17% | 44% |
| Fair | 48% | 56% | 58% | 44% |
| Poor | 29% | 24% | 23% | 9% |
| In the next six months, do you anticipate the demand for the following categories will. . . | ||||
| Business Loans | ||||
| Grow | 8% | 14% | 6% | 8% |
| Weaken | 26% | 35% | 50% | 56% |
| Stay the same | 67% | 52% | 44% | 35% |
| Commercial Real Estate Loans | ||||
| Grow | 8% | 9% | 9% | 1% |
| Weaken | 27% | 41% | 56% | 63% |
| Stay the same | 66% | 50% | 35% | 35% |
| Residential Real Estate Loans | ||||
| Grow | 29% | 20% | 13% | 6% |
| Weaken | 6% | 20% | 25% | 54% |
| Stay the same | 65% | 59% | 62% | 41% |
| Agricultural Loans | ||||
| Grow | 7% | 9% | 12% | 15% |
| Weaken | 15% | 21% | 32% | 38% |
| Stay the same | 78% | 70% | 56% | 48% |
| Deposit | ||||
| Grow | 15% | 17% | 17% | 13% |
| Weaken | 9% | 20% | 31% | 38% |
| Stay the same | 75% | 64% | 52% | 49% |
| In the next six months, are the businesses in your bank’s market area likely to. . . | ||||
| Hire employees | 23% | 11% | 25% | 17% |
| Maintain current staffing levels | 67% | 77% | 69% | 71% |
| Lay off employees | 11% | 12% | 6% | 11% |
