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Bank CEO Economic Forecast: Cloudy with a Chance of Recession

WBA Releases Results of Bank CEO Economic Conditions Survey

In the Wisconsin Bankers Association’s biannual Economic Conditions Survey of Wisconsin bank CEOs, three quarters of respondents rated Wisconsin’s current economic health as “excellent” or “good.” This continues a trend from the mid-year 2022 survey, when 71% of survey respondents gave “excellent” or “good” ratings. None of the Wisconsin bank CEOs who completed the most recent survey foresee major economic improvement in the first half of 2023 — 28% predict that the economy will stay the same and 72% predict it will weaken in the next six months.

“Because they are in tune with the financial circumstances of businesses and families in their areas, bank CEOs are experts who can apply a lot of context to their economic perspective,” said WBA President and CEO Rose Oswald Poels. “With the likelihood of a recession in the coming year looming, banks are standing ready to help their customers and communities through.“ 

 
Among the economic bright spots cited by CEOs in the survey were high employment, continued spending by consumers, the housing market, and business growth — particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and service/tourism. Top economic concerns reported by bank CEOs were inflation, the likelihood of recession, rising interest rates/slowed loan growth/reduced ability of borrowers to repay loans, business staffing, cybersecurity/fraud, and inability to access childcare.

The end-of-year 2022 survey was conducted November 15–30 with 71 respondents. Sums may not equal 100 percent due to rounding. Below is a breakdown of the survey questions and responses.

Wisconsin Bank CEO Economic Conditions Survey Results 

How would you rate the current health of the Wisconsin economy?  End-of-Year 2022  Mid-Year 2022  End-of-Year 2021 
Excellent  6%  7%  6% 
Good  69%  64%  73% 
Fair  24%  29%  20% 
Poor  1%  0%  1% 
        
In the next six months, do you expect the Wisconsin economy to…       
Grow  0%  2%  21% 
Weaken  72%  63%  15% 
Stay the same  28%  36%  64% 
        
Over the next six months, do you expect inflation to…       
Rise  24%  50%  – 
Fall  51%  22%  – 
Stay about the same  25%  28%  – 
       
How likely would you say a recession is in the next six months?       
Very unlikely  0%  4%  – 
Unlikely  3%  16%  – 
Neutral  10%  20%  – 
Likely  62%  45%  – 
Very likely  25%  16%  – 
       
Rate the current demand in the following categories:       
Business Loans       
Excellent  3%  2%  9% 
Good  44%  48%  48% 
Fair  46%  48%  39% 
Poor  7%  2%  5% 
        
Commercial Real Estate Loans       
Excellent  6%  7%  11% 
Good  34%  52%  44% 
Fair  53%  36%  41% 
Poor  7%  5%  4% 
        
Residential Real Estate Loans       
Excellent  4%  2%  25% 
Good  7%  20%  48% 
Fair  33%  50%  24% 
Poor  55%  29%  3% 
        
Agricultural Loans       
Excellent  3%  2%  1% 
Good  23%  37%  22% 
Fair  60%  51%  58% 
Poor  13%  10%  18% 
        
Deposit       
Excellent  3%  5%  – 
Good  44%  55%  – 
Fair  44%  38%  – 
Poor  9%  2%  – 
       
In the next six months, do you anticipate the demand for the following categories will…       
Business Loans       
Grow  8%  11%  28% 
Weaken  56%  48%  14% 
Stay the same  35%  41%  59% 
        
Commercial Real Estate Loans       
Grow  1%  13%  24% 
Weaken  63%  48%  21% 
Stay the same  35%  39%  55% 
        
Residential Real Estate Loans       
Grow  6%  4%  11% 
Weaken  54%  63%  56% 
Stay the same  41%  34%  33% 
        
Agricultural Loans       
Grow  15%  6%  15% 
Weaken  38%  31%  14% 
Stay the same  48%  63%  71% 
        
Deposit       
Grow  13%  11%  – 
Weaken  38%  36%  – 
Stay the same  49%  53%  – 
       
In the next six months, are the businesses in your bank’s market area likely to…       
Hire employees  17%  31%  68% 
Maintain current staffing levels  71%  61%  33% 
Lay off employees  11%  7%  0% 
        
In the next six months, is your bank likely to…       
Hire employees  23%  34%  55% 
Maintain current staffing levels  73%  63%  43% 
Lay off employees  4%  4%  3% 
Print 🖨
December 8, 2022/by Cassandra Krause
Tags: Economic Forecast, Economy, Press Release, WBA Press Release
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https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Current-Health-EoY22.png 630 1200 Cassandra Krause https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Cassandra Krause2022-12-08 11:25:542022-12-08 15:16:59Bank CEO Economic Forecast: Cloudy with a Chance of Recession
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