It’s going to be Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve no matter who is the next chair.
With every headline, financial markets get jolted as investors guess whether President Donald Trump will re-nominate Yellen to the helm of the U.S. central bank or opt for a more hawkish successor such as Stanford University economist John Taylor. Fed chairs matter. If credible, they influence dozens of policies, from regulation to research.
But on monetary policy, Yellen’s strategy of gradual rate hikes and ultra-slow balance sheet runoff will be difficult for any newcomer to quickly change.
“I don’t think the fundamentals of the economy allow you to change the policy path that much,” said Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist for UBS Securities, and a former Fed economist. “The biggest opportunity for change is with respect to balance sheet policy, and even there I find it hard to see how much change” a newcomer can bring.
Read more in Bloomberg.