The national political media site Politico has been providing a monthly ranking of the top ten U.S. Senate seats most likely to flip party control in November. This fall, 33 of the 100 Senate seats across the country are on the ballot, including Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) here in Wisconsin. Among those 33, 24 seats are held by Democrats or Independents that caucus with Democrats and 9 held by Republicans. In addition to the regularly scheduled seats, there are two special elections coinciding with the other 33 with the resignations of Al Franken (D-MN) and Thad Cochran (R-MS). GOP holds a 51-49 majority as of today.
Wisconsin will always receive national attention with our current status as a "purple" state. The fact that Donald Trump won the state for Republicans in 2016 for the first time since 1984 only adds to that. Wisconsin has already seen the most outside spent both for and against Senator Baldwin than all the other states combined. The two Republicans currently vying to replace her are State Senator Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) and businessman and Marine Corps veteran Kevin Nicholson (R-Waukesha).
Politico ranks the top ten as:
1) Nevada - Dean Heller (R) - Last Month: 1
2) Indiana - Joe Donnelly (D) - Last Month: 3
3) Missouri - Claire McCaskill (D) - Last Month: 2
4) Arizona - Open (R) - Last Month: 4
5) North Dakota - Heidi Heitkamp (D) - Last Month: 5
6) West Virginia - Joe Manchin (D) - Last Month: 6
7) Florida - Bill Nelson (D) - Last Month: 8
8) Wisconsin - Tammy Baldwin (D) - Last Month: 10
9) Montana - Jon Tester (D) - Last Month: 9
10) Ohio - Sherrod Brown (D) - Last Month: 7
Read the full analysis here. While this should be a year, just on the numerical advantage, that the GOP increases their majority in the U.S. Senate, polling and history indicate that it will be very tough for them to even hold the majority.