Wisconsin Bank CEOs Weigh in on Inflation and Possibility of Recession
WBA Releases Results of Bank CEO Economic Conditions Survey
In the Wisconsin Bankers Association’s biannual Economic Conditions Survey of Wisconsin bank CEOs, 71% of respondents rated Wisconsin’s current economic health as “excellent” or “good.” This marks a decline from the mid-year 2021 survey, when 91% of survey respondents gave “excellent” or “good” ratings. Nearly all (over 98%) of the Wisconsin bank CEOs who completed the most recent survey predict that the economy will stay the same or weaken in the next six months.
“Wisconsin bank CEOs have a unique vantage point in that they are both financial experts and highly involved individuals in their local communities,” said WBA President and CEO Rose Oswald Poels. “While the economy remains relatively stable, bankers are keeping a close eye on important indicators and stand ready to support their customers through possible economic challenges over the coming months.“
Among the economic bright spots cited by bank CEOs in the survey were strong tourism, construction, manufacturing, and agricultural industries. Survey results indicate that the hiring market and real estate market are cooling down. Top economic concerns reported by bank CEOs were inflation, cost of living/childcare/education, rising interest rates, oil and gas prices, staffing shortages, and the war in Ukraine.
The mid–year 2022 survey was conducted May 24–June 10 with 56 respondents. Sums may not equal 100 percent due to rounding. Below is a breakdown of the survey questions and responses.
Wisconsin Bank CEO Economic Conditions Survey Results
| How would you rate the current health of the Wisconsin economy. . . | Mid-Year 2022 | End-of-Year 2021 | Mid-Year 2021 |
| Excellent | 7% | 6% | 15% |
| Good | 64% | 73% | 76% |
| Fair | 29% | 20% | 10% |
| Poor | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| In the next six months, do you expect the Wisconsin economy to. . . | |||
| Grow | 2% | 21% | 48% |
| Weaken | 63% | 15% | 39% |
| Stay the same | 36% | 64% | 13% |
| Over the next six months, do you expect inflation to. . . | |||
| Rise | 50% | – | – |
| Fall | 22% | – | – |
| Stay about the same | 28% | – | – |
| How likely would you say a recession is in the next six months? | |||
| Very unlikely | 4% | – | – |
| Unlikely | 16% | – | – |
| Neutral | 20% | – | – |
| Likely | 45% | – | – |
| Very likely | 16% | – | – |
| Rate the current demand in the following categories: | |||
| Business Loans | |||
| Excellent | 2% | 9% | 10% |
| Good | 48% | 48% | 30% |
| Fair | 48% | 39% | 52% |
| Poor | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Commercial Real Estate Loans | |||
| Excellent | 7% | 11% | 13% |
| Good | 52% | 44% | 44% |
| Fair | 36% | 41% | 33% |
| Poor | 5% | 4% | 10% |
| Residential Real Estate Loans | |||
| Excellent | 2% | 25% | 40% |
| Good | 20% | 48% | 48% |
| Fair | 50% | 24% | 12% |
| Poor | 29% | 3% | 0% |
| Agricultural Loans | |||
| Excellent | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Good | 37% | 22% | 34% |
| Fair | 51% | 58% | 56% |
| Poor | 10% | 18% | 8% |
| Deposit | |||
| Excellent | 5% | – | – |
| Good | 55% | – | – |
| Fair | 38% | – | – |
| Poor | 2% | – | – |
| In the next six months, do you anticipate the demand for the following categories will. . . | |||
| Business Loans | |||
| Grow | 11% | 28% | 43% |
| Weaken | 48% | 14% | 7% |
| Stay the same | 41% | 59% | 51% |
| Commercial Real Estate Loans | |||
| Grow | 13% | 24% | 31% |
| Weaken | 48% | 21% | 8% |
| Stay the same | 39% | 55% | 31% |
| Residential Real Estate Loans | |||
| Grow | 4% | 11% | 14% |
| Weaken | 63% | 56% | 41% |
| Stay the same | 34% | 33% | 46% |
| Agricultural Loans | |||
| Grow | 6% | 15% | 18% |
| Weaken | 31% | 14% | 6% |
| Stay the same | 63% | 71% | 76% |
| Deposit | |||
| Grow | 11% | – | – |
| Weaken | 36% | – | – |
| Stay the same | 53% | – | – |
| In the next six months, are the businesses in your bank’s market area likely to. . . | |||
| Hire employees | 31% | 68% | 82% |
| Maintain current staffing levels | 61% | 33% | 15% |
| Lay off employees | 7% | 0% | 3% |
| In the next six months, is your bank likely to. . . | |||
| Hire employees | 34% | 55% | 48% |
| Maintain current staffing levels | 63% | 43% | 45% |
| Lay off employees | 4% | 3% | 6% |
