NY Fed Releases Consumer Expectations on Inflation, Job Market, and Household Finance

The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Center for Microeconomic Data released recent survey results which shows households' expectations about year-ahead earnings growth and the likelihood of finding a job increased sharply in July. Short-term inflation expectations were unchanged while medium-term inflation expectation ticked up. While remaining elevated, home price growth expectations declined.  

The NY Fed’s July 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations provides findings in the areas of inflation, labor market, and household finance. The survey contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans' views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The survey also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers' outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy.  

The survey is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, the panel allows the NY Fed to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. The press release provides a summary of the main findings from the survey.

Additional data, analysis, and resources may be viewed here.

By, Cassie Krause