As control of the Legislature hangs in the balance in Madison, so does the balance of power in our nation’s capital. Historically, midterms have been rough for the sitting president’s party. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in about 90% of midterm elections, with an average loss of roughly 28 seats. The president’s party loses Senate seats about 70% of the time, averaging about four seats. When a president faces low approval ratings, as President Donald Trump does today, those losses can be even greater.
Republicans retain a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold 218 seats and Democrats hold 214, with one independent, who continues to meet with the Republican conference, and two vacancies. Republicans hold the Senate majority with 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. All to say, the margin of error for Republicans is thin in both chambers.
With less than a month until Election Day, forecasters have moved further toward Democrats. The Cook Political Report now projects Democrats will win control of the House and rates the fight for the Senate a true toss-up, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to win the majority. A shift in either chamber would make it far more difficult for President Trump to advance his agenda in his final two years and would put new leadership in charge of the House Financial Services Committee, the panel with jurisdiction over banking policy. Two Wisconsin congressional seats will play a pivotal role in shaping the balance of power in Washington, D.C.
The 1st Congressional District has become more competitive than many expected, though Republican incumbent Representative Bryan Steil remains the favorite. The district stretches across southeastern Wisconsin, including Racine, Kenosha, Janesville, and Beloit, and Republicans have held the seat for more than three decades. Rep. Steil won reelection with 54% in 2024 and holds a substantial financial advantage. Democrat Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse from Racine County, won the August primary. In September, national Democrats added the seat to their list of top pickup targets, and the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Polling released by Democrats shows a close race, and outside Republican groups have stepped up spending to protect Rep. Steil. Even so, the district’s long Republican history and Rep. Steil’s fundraising edge make it an uphill climb for Berman.
The 3rd Congressional District remains the most competitive of Wisconsin’s congressional races and one of the most closely watched in the country. Republican incumbent Representative Derrick Van Orden is seeking a third term in a western Wisconsin district that includes La Crosse and Eau Claire. Democrat Rebecca Cooke won her August primary by double digits, setting up a rematch after she lost to Rep. Van Orden by less than three points in 2024, even as President Trump carried the district by seven. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, one of only a handful of Republican-held seats with that rating nationally. Cooke has outraised Rep. Van Orden this cycle, while Rep. Van Orden entered the general election with more cash on hand and the advantages of incumbency. With both parties treating the district as a must-win, expect heavy spending and advertising through Election Day.
As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.
American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin
