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Tag Archive for: Economy

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Community, News

Crypto ATMs Pop up Around Wisconsin as Consumer Interest in Digital Currency Grows

By Paul Gores

In a prominent spot near the center of Brookfield Square mall, an automated kiosk quietly invites shoppers to insert cash and buy Bitcoin, Litecoin, or Ethereum cryptocurrencies.

Similar cryptocurrency kiosks — commonly called crypto ATMs or Bitcoin ATMs — can be found in other major Wisconsin malls, as well as in hundreds of convenience stores, gas stations, and retail shops around the state.

At the same time, a cryptocurrency-buying option now is available throughout Wisconsin at many kiosks operated by the self-service coin-cashing company Coinstar — 146 of them in all in the Badger State.

As cryptocurrencies and their enabling technology — blockchain — grow in acceptance and popularity, more and more kiosks that make Bitcoin, Litecoin, and other currencies available to the masses are popping up around the state and nation. There are now more than 35,000 crypto kiosks or ATMs in the U.S. offering people interested in owning the digital currency an easy way to acquire it. In Wisconsin, there are believed to be more than 500 such machines.

The buildup of crypto ATMs — and decentralized currencies operating on blockchain in general — raises questions for American financial institutions whose business traditionally has revolved around a currency with a central authority.

In the short term, bankers shouldn’t worry that cryptocurrencies are about to overtake the dollar to the point where trips to the grocery store routinely will be paid with Bitcoin, one expert said.

“We’re nowhere close to grandpa buying milk with a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of a Bitcoin,” said computer science professor, Michael Litman, of Concordia University Wisconsin in Mequon.

Still, more companies are accepting payment in cryptocurrency, and nowadays even a wealthy donor might ask whether his or her favored charity will accept a contribution in Bitcoin. Given crypto’s momentum, bankers would be wise to learn as much as they can about cryptocurrency and consider how it could be useful to their customers, experts say.

Cryptocurrencies are here to stay, with a total market value in excess of $2 trillion and more than 200 million users across the globe, said David Krause, director of applied investment management and associate professor of finance at Marquette University in Milwaukee.

Krause said when it comes to cryptocurrency, banks should think of themselves like taxi companies before Uber, or bookstores before Amazon.

“They need to innovate and adopt digital currencies to avoid being run over,” Krause said.

The rise in crypto ATMs coincides with the interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, which, while volatile, has seen its market price skyrocket over the past few years. Kiosks or ATMs offer average people access to owning Bitcoin or other digital currencies as an investment, or, if they use a vendor that accepts Bitcoin, to easily acquire Bitcoin to make a purchase.

“Coinstar and the Bitcoin kiosk industry generally serve consumers who prefer to budget or manage their funds in cash yet still need access to digital financial products like cryptocurrency,” said Michael Jack, head of product for Coinstar. “There are a variety of use cases. Consumers use cryptocurrencies to invest or save and buy and hold them in a wallet. Others use it as a form of person-to-person or person-to-business transfers. In many cases, cryptocurrency can be an easier and/or more cost-effective way to do those transactions.”

Last fall, Walmart said it had started a pilot program with Coinstar to put crypto-enabled Coinstar kiosks in 200 stores of the nation’s largest retailer. If the pilot is successful and expands to other Walmart stores, the ability to buy cryptocurrency in so many locations could go a long way toward mainstreaming the digital currency.

While some crypto ATMs allow a currency such as Bitcoin to be sold and converted to cash, most transactions at the ATMs involve a customer inserting cash and having an equal amount of Bitcoin at that day’s market price — minus fees — deposited in the buyer’s digital wallet. In the case of Bitcoin, which at the time of writing this was valued at about $48,000, even $1,000 inserted into the ATM would buy only a small fraction.

“There is growing adoption of cryptocurrency, primarily as a speculative investment,” said Scott Green, of Shazam Network-ITS Inc. “While Bitcoin can be used for person-to-person transfers or purchases from retailers that support it, the most prevalent use case is investment.”

However, even though cryptocurrency might not be well-suited for smaller financial transactions yet, it can make sense for larger deals, said Concordia’s Litman. Litman, who has owned and sold Bitcoin, is a fan of some NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, which also are powered by the blockchain.

NFTs are used as a way to validate ownership of something unique, the way, say, a title registered with the Department of Motor Vehicles shows who bought a car. An NFT can do the same thing, except it’s verified by the blockchain for proof of ownership.

“I would actually make the argument that in some ways banks should be embracing this,” Litman said.

Litman also said using NFTs can cut the red tape and expense of international transactions. For instance, $100,000 in U.S. dollars could be converted to an NFT such as Ripple, sent via blockchain to a Ripple digital wallet in China, and then converted into the yuan.

Using a crypto ATM comes at a cost to the user. A commission typically is charged, along with a flat fee. Fees range widely depending on which company operates the ATM.

For example, each cryptocurrency purchase at a Coinstar kiosk carries a transaction fee of 4% and a cash exchange fee of 7%.

Bitcoin Depot, which runs the crypto ATMs at Brookfield Square and other Wisconsin malls, allows for daily purchases of from $20 to $15,000 of cryptocurrency.

Retailers who provide space for cryptocurrency ATMs do so for the reason they host other types of automated kiosks or services — mostly for the rent.

“Adding this service provides an additional revenue stream to the retailer,” said Coinstar’s Jack. “It also brings more consumers into their establishment who are then more likely to spend money in the store.”

Jack said rents vary between providers and retailers, and can encompass either a flat rent and/or a revenue share.

“For Coinstar retailers, it is a service offered on an existing kiosk with no additional space or labor required by the retailer,” he noted.

On its website, Coin ATM Radar puts the number of cryptocurrency kiosks in Wisconsin at 416, although that appears not to include the nearly 150 Coinstar kiosks offering a crypto function.

Among other crypto ATM operators in Wisconsin are Digitalmint, Athena, and CoinFlip.

As of now, crypto ATMs are not regulated by the Wisconsin Department of Financial Institutions. But as locations and usage grows, they could face increasing scrutiny by state and federal regulators.

CNBC reported in November that as the number of crypto ATMs in the U.S. has grown, criminals increasingly have used the machines in schemes including money laundering and drug trafficking.

The CNC report said the ease of transactions and relative anonymity allowed when using them has contributed to abuses of the ATMs, and that some in the industry are pushing for uniform standards to prevent crime amid a patchwork of rules and state laws.

Experts generally believe some kind of regulation is coming for cryptocurrencies.

“I do expect more regulation over time. But regulation focused on cutting off fraud should and hopefully will be first and foremost,” said Joseph Wall, associate professor of accounting at Marquette University.

Litman said some attempt to regulate cryptocurrency is likely, but it might not be easy.

“Yes, the government is going to want to step in and do it. With blockchain, because of the nature of it, it’s going to be very difficult. Who are they going to hold accountable?” he said.

Shazam’s Green said that to some extent, there are regulations and statutes that apply to cryptocurrency, but the enforcement is difficult due to the nature of decentralized finance.

“For example, Bitcoin as a crypto should roughly follow commodities laws, and tokens that look like securities should fall under securities laws,” Green said. “The regulatory environment around the entire crypto, DeFi (decentralized finance), and stable coin industry is in flux, but we are starting to get more clarity by the day. Also, as banks start delving into it more, they will be seeking guidance and approval of regulators for their projects, and that will help clarify ambiguities.”

Should banks become involved in offering customers crypto options or even crypto ATMs?

“It would make a lot of sense to offer a platform like an ATM, but one that can do more,” said Marquette’s Wall, an expert in blockchain and related technologies. “A bank that wants to increase its customer base and service its customers based on their needs should consider multiple ways that their customers may want to store their wealth, conduct transactions, and interact with their mediums of exchange. ATMs are one way to do this. Increasing the ability of a customer to transact, transfer, and use their chosen medium of exchange is the very basis of banking, starting with the barter system. I cannot imagine a bank believing that U.S. dollars only is a permanently sustainable business model.”

Green said there’s not a need for banks to rush into crypto ATMs.

“Banks don’t need to do anything to allow customers to purchase and use cryptocurrency. The debit cards, ACH, and new faster payment gateways will all help facilitate fiat-to-crypto conversions for customers when they’re using any third-party service such as an exchange,” Green said. “A question banks may start asking is what else can we do directly ourselves that provides value and earns revenue? For example, rather than ATMs, the digital banking platforms that banks have provide a much more flexible, efficient, and convenient interface to buy and sell crypto.”
Marquette’s Krause doesn’t particularly like the idea of banks adding crypto ATMs.

“Bitcoin and crypto ATMs can be convenient for investors and consumers, but I am not a fan,” Krause said. “They tend to have high transaction fees, they are not widely available, and like most ATMs, they often have technical problems. I think bankers have a lot more to worry about than crypto ATMs!”

Regardless of how much crypto ATMs proliferate, banks should be paying attention to cryptocurrencies, experts said.

Wall said decentralized financial models are one of the greatest threats to traditional banking in a long time.

“I have seen studies that suggest it can cost more for a poor person to send money to and from other relatives in other economically impoverished areas than it did 30 years ago,” Wall said. “This should not be. Cryptocurrencies can be an equalizer by slashing rates and making costs proportional for all. The speed, execution, immutability, and cost structure are such that it is understandable why the market capitalization of DeFi companies is already rivaling that of traditional banks.”

There are ways for banks to work with cryptocurrencies, and they need to look into them, Wall said.

“Some banks will likely create their own cryptocurrencies, embrace the use of a Fedcoin should one be created, or partner with traditional cryptocurrencies to hedge their risks in the space,” Wall said. “Those banks which do so will likely experience a reduction of profitability in percentage terms, but an increase in the number of transactions such that overall profitability may increase, depending on their creativity.”

Wall said banks that ignore the sector are likely establishing a profitability maximum this year.

“They will likely still be able to grow for a while, but the gap between their rate of growth and the potential growth they could have — by embracing cryptocurrencies — will begin to widen at an increasing rate,” Wall said. “It is not that banks are going away. The business models they employ are rapidly changing. Those that adapt can still do well. Those that do not will struggle.”

Gores is a journalist who covered business news for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel for 20 years.

SHAZAM® is a WBA Gold Associate Member.

December 17, 2021/by Hannah Flanders
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/bigstock-Circuit-Board-Electronics-Cyb-401555984.jpg 0 0 Hannah Flanders https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Hannah Flanders2021-12-17 14:30:312021-12-17 14:45:18Crypto ATMs Pop up Around Wisconsin as Consumer Interest in Digital Currency Grows
Education, News

Midwest Economic Forecast Forum Virtual on January 4

By Kenneth D. Thompson, WBA Board chair, president and CEO of Capitol Bank, Madison

Ken Thompson HeadshotWe are closing out this calendar year with a better understanding of COVID-19 than we had at this time one year ago in 2020, however the ongoing pandemic casts a heightened degree of uncertainty onto predictions for the 2022 economy. As bankers, we are responsible for interpreting economic data and trends that will impact the financial health of our institutions, our customers, and our communities. To support us in this important aspect of our work, the Wisconsin Bankers Association and partners organize the Midwest Economic Forecast Forum annually. This year’s event is set to be an exciting opportunity to hear from nationally renowned experts as they present their perspectives on economic conditions that continue to be susceptible to the risks and challenges posed by the pandemic.

The forum will be held virtually on January 4, 2022 from 10:30 a.m.–noon CT. Individual and group rates will be available, giving banks the opportunity to invite their staff, business customers,
directors, and others to join in on the viewing as part of their group registration.

Headlining the event will be Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari, who will provide an economic outlook. Kashkari took office as president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis on January 1, 2016. In this role, he serves on the Federal Open Market Committee, bringing the Ninth District’s perspective to monetary policy discussions in Washington, D.C. In addition to his responsibilities as a monetary policymaker, Kashkari oversees all operations of the Bank, including supervision and regulation, treasury services, and
payments services.

Presenting on the topic of “Economic Mega Trends 2022 and Beyond” will be David Kohl, Ph.D., professor emeritus, Virginia Tech. Kohl will cover questions such as: What are the global economic disruptors and power shifts? How will trade, geopolitics, supply chains, climate changes, and weather in extremes impact competitors? How will the stimulus package and Central Bank’s accommodative policy impact strategic positioning? What are some major mega trends on the horizon? What are the lead and lag indicators that need to be on the dashboards of decision makers?

With the level of uncertainty surrounding our economy moving forward, bankers should be especially interested in attending this engaging and informative event. The year ahead will no doubt be affected by excess liquidity in the banking system, supply chain delays/disruptions, labor shortages, and inflation fears. Bankers need to have a keen eye on how these key economic drivers will impact their banks and clientele. I look forward to the discussion on these topics at the Midwest Economic Forecast Forum and hope many of you will join us.

November 9, 2021/by Cassandra Krause
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Triangle-Backgrounds_Yellow-on-Light-Blue.jpg 972 1921 Cassandra Krause https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Cassandra Krause2021-11-09 14:37:222021-11-09 14:54:39Midwest Economic Forecast Forum Virtual on January 4
News

Guest Column: Consider Saudi Arabia when Looking for Economic Opportunities

By Fahad Nazer, Official Spokesperson, Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia entered a new era on February 14, 1945, when King Abdulaziz Al-Saud met President Franklin Delano Roosevelt aboard the USS Quincy. In the 76 years since, relations between our two nations have continued to deepen and to broaden. Indeed, our partnership is rich and multilayered. It has political, security, cultural, and importantly, economic dimensions that have served the interests of both nations and our peoples. Strong bilateral ties between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have helped advance stability across the Middle East and have led to decades of economic strength for both Saudis and Americans.

Saudi Arabia’s economic relationship with the U.S. is a critical component of this partnership. The U.S. is one of Saudi Arabia’s largest and most important trading partners. In 2019, there was over $17 billion in trade between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. While much of the attention on trade has focused on the critical role that Saudi Arabia plays as the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil, the economic partnership between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia has steadily diversified over the years. Today, our economic relationship includes cooperation across high-tech sectors, Artificial Intelligence (AI), sustainable development and green technologies, and even tourism and entertainment that bring our two countries closer together. This economic diversification will further strengthen the relationship and will undoubtedly provide opportunities for companies in both Saudi Arabia and the U.S., including in Wisconsin.

This rapid economic diversification is a key pillar of the historic transformation currently underway in Saudi Arabia known as Vision 2030. Under the leadership of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and His Royal Highness the Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, Vision 2030 was unveiled in 2016 to serve as a blueprint for developing Saudi Arabia’s potential and achieving our ambitions for the 21st century. While Vision 2030 has impacted all facets of Saudi life, it seeks to develop a thriving economy for the Kingdom through innovation, diversification, and utilizing the Kingdom’s youth power to create a sustainable economy for the future.

For Wisconsin companies, Vision 2030 is an opportunity for generating continued growth and developing new partnerships. Saudi Arabia and Wisconsin companies have already established strong ties. For example, Fincantieri Marinette Marine currently has a multi-billion-dollar contract to build four ships for the Saudi Navy, the Oshkosh Corporation has a joint venture with a Saudi company called Al Tadrea, and according to the U.S. Census Bureau, Wisconsin in 2020 exported $234,237,738 worth of commodities to Saudi Arabia and imported $1,641,938 of commodities that same year. Both of our countries benefit from these business relationships.

Additional opportunities and expanding the existing trade relationship between Wisconsin and Saudi Arabia are essential to the future of the U.S.-Saudi partnership. Our bond with the U.S. is strengthened and improved when every region and state in America is included and prospers because of the partnership. I would encourage Wisconsin business leaders to consider Saudi Arabia as not just a new market for expansion but as a long-term economic partner that can become an important ally for The Badger State, through collaboration, investment, and trade.

Finally, while I hope that my description of the historic transformation occurring in Saudi Arabia is informative, there is no substitute to visiting the Kingdom. I would invite all the newsletter’s readers, all those interested in learning more about Saudi Arabia, our people, and the significant investment and economic opportunities in the Kingdom, to come visit us and to see this exciting transformation for themselves.

For more information, please contact Info.was@mofa.gov.sa.

October 19, 2021/by Cassandra Krause
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Triangle-Backgrounds_Blue-on-Lime-Green.jpg 972 1920 Cassandra Krause https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Cassandra Krause2021-10-19 13:39:322021-10-19 13:40:14Guest Column: Consider Saudi Arabia when Looking for Economic Opportunities
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Community, Compliance, News, Resources

CDC Eviction Moratorium Order for Areas of Substantial and High Virus Transmission Levels

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new eviction moratorium order last week having determined the evictions of tenants for failure to make rent or housing payments could be detrimental to public health control measures to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The latest CDC order is narrower than previous moratoriums in that it applies in U.S. counties experiencing substantial and high levels of community transmission levels of SARS-CoV-2, as those terms are defined by CDC, as of August 3, 2021. The order is to expire on October 3, 2021. 

The eviction moratorium order sets forth that, subject to the limitations of the order’s applicability, a landlord, owner of a residential property, or other person with a legal right to pursue eviction or possessory action, shall not evict any covered person from any residential property in any county or U.S. territory while the county or territory is experiencing substantial or high levels of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. For purposes of the order, CDC has defined “person” to include corporations, companies, associations, firms, partnerships, societies, and joint stock companies, as well as individuals.  

A “covered person” means any tenant, lessee, or resident of a residential property who provides to their landlord, the owner of the residential property, or other person with a legal right to pursue eviction or a possessory action, a declaration under penalty of perjury which indicates that:  

(1) The individual has used best efforts to obtain all available governmental assistance for rent or housing; 

(2) The individual either (a) earned no more than $99,000 (or $198,000 if filing jointly) in calendar year 2020 or expects to earn no more than $99,000 in annual income for calendar year 2021 (or no more than $198,000 if filing a joint tax return); (b) was not required to report any income in 2020 to the IRS; or (c) received an Economic Impact Payment (stimulus check); 

(3) The individual is unable to pay the full rent or make a full housing payment due to substantial loss of household income, loss of compensable hours of work or wages, a lay-off, or extraordinary out-of-pocket medical expenses;  

(4) The individual is using best efforts to make timely partial rent payments that are as close to the full rent payment as the individual’s circumstances may permit, taking into account other nondiscretionary expenses;  

(5) Eviction would likely render the individual homeless — or force the individual to move into and reside in close quarters in a new congregate or shared living setting — because the individual has no other available housing options; and  

(6) The individual resides in a U.S. county experiencing substantial or high rates of community transmission levels of SARS-CoV-2.

The order defines both “substantial” and “high” for the purpose of determining which U.S. counties may be subject to the moratorium. Counties experiencing substantial transmission levels are experiencing 50.99-99.99 new cases in the county in the past 7 days divided by the population in the county multiplied by 100,000; and 8.00-9.99% positive nucleic acid amplification tests in the past 7 days (number of positive tests in the country during the past 7 days divided by the total number of tests performed in the county during the past 7 days).  

High transmission level is defined as ≥100 new cases in the county in the past 7 days divided by the population in the county multiplied by 100,000; and ≥ 10.00% positive nucleic amplification tests in the past 7 days (number of positive tests in the country during the past 7 days divided by the total number of tests performed in the county during the past 7 days). CDC has created a COVID Data Tracker which can be used to search the level of community transmission on a county level.

Before a landlord may proceed with an eviction, the landlord must review the virus transmission levels of the county where the residential property is located to determine whether the eviction moratorium is applicable. Landlords should also be aware that residential property means any property leased for residential purposes. This includes any house, building, mobile home or land in a mobile home park, or similar dwelling leased for residential purposes. The term includes manufactured housing communities. The term does not include any hotel, motel, or other guest house rented to a temporary guest or seasonal tenant as defined be state, tribal, or local laws.  

Currently, not all counties in Wisconsin are at the substantial or high-level community transmission level. Transmission levels will obviously change as each community is impacted by the virus, thus making monitoring of county transmission levels an important step. As mentioned above, the CDC order applies in U.S. counties experiencing substantial and high levels of community transmission levels of SARS-CoV-2 as of August 3. If a U.S. county that was not covered by the order as of August 3 later experiences substantial or high levels of community transmission while the order is in effect, then that county will become subject to the order as of the date the county begins experiencing the substantial or high levels of community transmission.  

If a U.S. county that is covered by the order no longer experiences substantial or high levels of community transmission for 14 consecutive days, then the order will no longer apply in that county, unless and until the county again experiences substantial or high levels of community transmission while the order is in effect.  

To assist covered persons with qualifying for protection under the order, CDC has created a standardized declaration form that can be completed and signed by the covered person. The form may be downloaded here.

Other resources to assist consumers seek help with rent and utilities may be found here.

WI DATCP Landlord Tenant COVID-19 FAQs

The CDC eviction moratorium order may be viewed here.

 

 

By, Cassie Krause

August 9, 2021/by Jose De La Rosa
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/bigstock-aerial-view-of-small-american-418066579-scaled.jpg 1719 2560 Jose De La Rosa https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Jose De La Rosa2021-08-09 13:26:592021-10-13 15:06:10CDC Eviction Moratorium Order for Areas of Substantial and High Virus Transmission Levels
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News

WI Bank CEOs Report Improving Economy, Citing Pent-up Demand

WBA Releases Results of Bank CEO Economic Conditions Survey

MADISON, Wis. – In the Wisconsin Bankers Association's biannual Economic Conditions Survey of Wisconsin bank CEOs, 76 percent of respondents rated the current economy at "good," followed by 15 percent at "excellent" and 10 percent at "fair." This marks a positive change from the end of 2020 when the survey was last conducted and 58 percent of respondents rated the economy at "fair," followed by 38 percent at "good," 3 percent at "excellent," and 1 percent at "poor."

"Wisconsin bank CEOs are in a unique position to provide insight on the economy because they see the day-to-day happenings with their customers and put that knowledge together with data and industry expertise," said WBA President and CEO Rose Oswald Poels. "It is very encouraging to see the economy improving as people begin to resume their spending on products and leisure activities in ways they were unable or hesitant to do six months or a year ago."

Many bank CEOs linked favorable economic conditions to pent-up demand for goods and services as COVID-19 restrictions lift, with government stimulus money, low unemployment, low interest rates, and savings built up from staying home bolstering consumer confidence. Commonly cited sources of economic concern, on the other hand, were workforce shortages, supply chain issues, and uncertainty surrounding COVID-19.

Wisconsin's economy will continue to grow over the next six months, predict 48 percent of respondents, while 39 percent predict it will stay the same and 13 percent predict it will weaken.

The survey was conducted the last two weeks of July with 62 respondents. Sums may not equal 100 percent due to rounding. Below is a breakdown of the survey questions and responses.

How would you rate the current health of the Wisconsin economy. . .

 

Excellent

15%

Good

76%

Fair

10%

Poor

0%

 

 

In the next six months, do you expect the Wisconsin economy to. . .

 

Grow

48%

Weaken

39%

Stay the same

13%

 

 

Rate the current demand in the following categories:

 

Business loans

 

Excellent

10%

Good

30%

Fair

52%

Poor

8%

 

 

Commercial real estate

 

Excellent

13%

Good

44%

Fair

33%

Poor

10%

 

 

Residential real estate

 

Excellent

40%

Good

48%

Fair

12%

Poor

0%

 

 

Agricultural

 

Excellent

2%

Good

34%

Fair

56%

Poor

8%

 

 

In the next six months, do you anticipate the demand for the following loan categories will. . .

 

Business loans

 

Grow

43%

Weaken

7%

Stay the same

51%

 

 

Commercial real estate

 

Grow

31%

Weaken

8%

Stay the same

31%

 

 

Residential real estate

 

Grow

14%

Weaken

41%

Stay the same

46%

 

 

Agricultural

 

Grow

18%

Weaken

6%

Stay the same

76%

 

 

In the next six months, are the businesses in your bank’s market area likely to. . .

 

Hire employees

82%

Maintain current staffing levels

15%

Lay off employees

3%

 

 

In the next six months, is your bank likely to. . .

 

Hire employees

48%

Maintain current staffing levels

45%

Lay off employees

6%

 

 

In general, how would you say the pandemic has affected your business customers?

 

Very positively

10%

Positively

34%

No impact

16%

Negatively

39%

Very negatively

2%

 

 

In general, how would you say the pandemic has affected your retail customers?

 

Very positively

3%

Positively

37%

No impact

17%

Negatively

41%

Very negatively

2%

 

 

 

By, Cassie Krause

August 3, 2021/by Jose De La Rosa
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/survey.jpg 1067 1600 Jose De La Rosa https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Jose De La Rosa2021-08-03 01:09:172021-10-13 15:12:23WI Bank CEOs Report Improving Economy, Citing Pent-up Demand
American flag overlaying charts of stock exchange data
News

Inflation Very Strong Again in June, Biggest Price Increases Tied to Reopening; Inflation Will Slow Dramatically in Second Half of Year

  • The CPI jumped 0.9% in June, with the core CPI also up 0.9% over the month. A few categories experiencing strong demand and limited supplies coming out of the pandemic boosted inflation over the month.
  • Inflation as measured on a year-ago basis was at the highest levels in decades. However, this is overstated because of comparisons with the period of weak prices at the beginning of the pandemic.
  • Inflation will slow in the second half of 2021 as supply starts to catch up with demand.
  • With the current pickup in inflation due largely to one-time factors, the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise the federal funds rate until mid-2023.

The consumer price index for urban consumers jumped 0.9% in June from May, the biggest one-month increase since June 2008. The consensus expectation was for a 0.5% increase. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was also up 0.9% over the month. This was the strongest one month of core inflation since the early 1980s. Overall CPI inflation was 0.6% in May, with core inflation at 0.7%.

Prices once again rose quickly for goods and services that are experiencing strong demand, but also supply disruptions, coming out of the pandemic. Used car and truck prices jumped 10.5% over the month, the biggest one-month gain ever (going back to 1953), after increases of 10.0% in April and 7.3% in May. The increase in used car prices alone accounted for more than one-third of overall inflation in June. New car prices were up 2.0% in June, lodging away from home costs were up 7.0% over the month, and airfares rose 2.7%, after a 7.0% increase in May. Energy prices rose 1.5% in June, including a 2.5% increase in gasoline prices. Food prices rose 0.8% over the month.

On a year-ago basis overall inflation was 5.4% in June, with core inflation of 4.5%, the fastest pace since 1991. However, this overstates inflation, because prices declined in March and April of 2020 when the pandemic came to the U.S. The overall CPI was up 4.7% in June from February 2020, before the pandemic, with the core CPI up 4.2% over the same period. Used car prices were up an astonishing 45% in June from a year earlier, rental car prices were up 88%, and auto insurance was up 11%. On the flip side, medical care costs were up a scant 0.4% in June from a year ago.

The headline inflation numbers have been eye-popping in recent months, but underlying inflation remains under control. Once again a few categories—used vehicles, airfares, rental cars, hotels—are experiencing huge price gains because of the recovery from the pandemic, and once again comparisons with weak prices a year earlier are overstating inflation. Both factors will wash out of the data in the near term. Used car prices are temporarily elevated because of very strong demand from stimulus payments, people returning to work, and limited supplies of new cars; used car supplies are also very low. Used car prices will fall back to earth later this year as new car production picks back up.

Similarly, airfares will decline as the airlines add capacity. And gasoline demand has picked up more quickly than supply as people return to work and start traveling again, but eventually higher prices will induce more oil production, resulting in lower energy prices. Also, comparisons with the period of very weak prices in the early stages of the pandemic will fade from the data, slowing inflation on a year-over-year basis.

Monthly inflation will be much slower in the second half of 2021 than in the first half of the year as demand pressures from the economic reopening fade and supply starts to catch up as businesses increase production. Year-over-year inflation will also be softer in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that it views the current high inflation as due to transitory factors and will not tighten monetary policy until inflation is consistently at or above 2%, excluding one-time factors. (The Fed uses a different price index, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which tends to run a bit slower than the CPI.) PNC does not expect the next increase in the fed funds rate until mid-2023.

The big concern is that current high inflation gets built into consumers’ and businesses’ expectations, leading to higher long-run inflation, as happened in the 1970s. However, the temporary nature of current inflation pressures, and Fed watchfulness, should prevent this from happening.

Faucher is PNC's Chief Economist.

By, Ally Bates

July 14, 2021/by Jose De La Rosa
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/istock-517187776_flag-economy_banner-2.jpg 1000 1500 Jose De La Rosa https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Jose De La Rosa2021-07-14 13:54:222021-10-13 15:01:45Inflation Very Strong Again in June, Biggest Price Increases Tied to Reopening; Inflation Will Slow Dramatically in Second Half of Year
Family with hands cupped together holding up patch of soil with plant growing out of it
Advocacy, News

Sen. Baldwin on Wisconsin’s Ag Industry, “Vital to a Strong Rural Economy”

The agricultural industry faces many challenges, and these have only been emphasized as a result of the pandemic. Through necessary reform such as the Enhancing Credit Opportunities in Rural America ECORA Act — legislation authored by Congressman Ron Kind (WI-03) to remove taxation on income from certain farm real estate loans made by FDIC-backed institutions — banks would be able to provide significant help by lowering loan rates and serving these borrowers in a more efficient manner. Advocating for the success of this industry requires a collective effort, and Senator Tammy Baldwin is one of these individuals making a powerful difference in Wisconsin’s ag community.

On April 29, Sen. Baldwin held her first hearing as chair of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies. The hearing, titled “Diversifying On-Farm Income: Opportunities to Strengthen Rural America” focused on how diversifying the operations of agriculture producers can result in more on-farm income as well as the challenges and opportunities of the industry.

“In Wisconsin and across the country, a strong agricultural economy is vital to a strong rural economy. As the pandemic continues to weigh on our rural communities and agriculture sector, we must deliver more support and solutions so our farmers and small businesses have the tools they need to get through this economic crisis,” said Sen. Baldwin.

Accessing newer and fairer markets has been a priority for Baldwin as well. As the discussion around climate change becomes more pressing, there is a growing number of farmers, ranchers, and agricultural workers looking to address this. Being able to assure profitability for these workers, who are also looking at solutions to climate issues, is a critical part of assisting the industry, though it has not come without obstacles.

Following the passage of the Economic Aid Act, farming partnerships were shut out from using a new and more generous loan calculation despite a co-authored provision by Baldwin and Sen. John Thune to allow sole-proprietor and self-employed farmers to use their gross income to calculate their maximum Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan. As a result of this, Sen. Baldwin along with several other legislators introduced bipartisan legislation titled PPP Flexibility for Farmers, Ranchers, and the Self-Employed Act to extend more relief to farmers in Wisconsin through PPP changes. This also included a fix that allowed self-employed farmers already receiving loan forgiveness to retroactively apply for another loan. The amount of the loan would be the difference between the former and latter loan, based on gross income.

“I’ve been working to make more resources and funding available for Wisconsin farmers so they can access the relief they need,” said Sen. Baldwin. “And as chair of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture and Rural Development, I’m going to keep working across the aisle to ensure farmers and agriculture businesses have the tools they need to succeed and strengthen our rural economy.”

WBA looks forward to continuing its work with Sen. Baldwin to support Wisconsin’s agricultural industry by addressing these challenges and push for legislation.

By, Alex Paniagua

June 7, 2021/by Jose De La Rosa
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/bigstock_47646973_farmers-family-agriculture.jpg 533 800 Jose De La Rosa https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Jose De La Rosa2021-06-07 13:13:472021-10-13 14:56:24Sen. Baldwin on Wisconsin’s Ag Industry, “Vital to a Strong Rural Economy”
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Member News, News

K-Shaped Recovery: The Role of Banks and Small Businesses

The K-shaped recovery has dominated the news in recent months, but the main question is whether this drastic contrast in a post-COVID U.S. will dominate the economy the same way it occupied the media. 

Recoveries we’ve seen in the past typically consisted of uniform comebacks among different industries and sectors of the economy, but the K-shaped explanation suggests certain industries will ride the ascending part of the “K” while others take the downward slope. The end of the pandemic will certainly result in outcomes we’ve yet to witness, but the extent to which this recovery will diverge and what can be done about it is a concern many bankers have questioned. The perspective on this debated contrast for many seems to be a matter of location. 

“We’re in central Wisconsin,” said Bill Sennholz, CEO of Forward Bank, Marshfield. “What we’re finding is rural areas have fared better than urban, and our customer base is doing really well right now. Our delinquency is way down. Our deferral rate is about one tenth of 1% of our portfolio. We have deposit balances that are way above what we normally expect, and we’re struggling to deploy the level of deposits we have because our customer base is doing surprisingly well.”  

Mark Erickson, regional president of MidWestOne Bank, Osceola, has noticed a similar trend in western Wisconsin. But outside of these outliers, Erickson and Sennholz are both aware of what’s happening to the businesses outside of the smaller towns where dedicated communities have banded together.  

“It’s not this promising in most places,” Erickson said. “I definitely have seen the shift in e-commerce propelled 5 years forward. Particularly in retail, they’re experiencing this more than others. People are shifting to purchasing goods online, which was already happening prior to March of last year, but now it’s really been pushed forward.” 

This expedited push away from brick-and-mortar shops appears to be a primary factor in why people believe the economic recovery might be K-shaped. Theaters are being replaced by streaming services, retailers are being won out by their more convenient online counterparts, and restaurants have had to accommodate for limited dining capacities. According to Tom Reil, president of Waldo State Bank, it would be ideal to imagine that the easy fix to saving these businesses is by mirroring what the smaller communities are doing: showing greater support for these local industries. But of course, he explained, it’s far more complicated than that. This is where the K-shaped concern begins. 

“The local communities are really stepping up and helping these small businesses,” said Reil. “But it’s not a sustainable business model. It’s helping them get by, but it’s not sustainable. This just hasn’t been predictable for anyone at all, and some people are benefiting from that unpredictability and others simply aren’t.”  

Learning to Adapt 

The K-shaped recovery isn’t inevitable, the number of different potential economic recoveries are still vast. This will depend on a variety of factors, ranging from continued government funding and local support. In the meantime, however, hoping for a more positive outcome shouldn’t be the fallback option. Creating a plan for the worst will likely put these businesses ahead of others while they hope for the best.  

“I think there’s going to be great success for those who adapt, learn, and make themselves vulnerable to change,” said Erickson. “We’re going to make mistakes, and there will be people out there better at something than we are. That feels weird, and it makes us feel vulnerable.”  

From a consumer perspective, Erickson noted that now is an ideal time for employees in any field to develop skills in the areas that are growing. As businesses change, employees may lose their role because the need for it no longer exists. It’s important to be adaptable and willing to find new training because there are so many ways of doing business.  

For Reil, this type of training starts at his bank. The transition to operating during the pandemic meant there was less of an immediate need for tellers. Instead of letting employees go for the time being, Reil made sense of the given situation by providing tellers with a new range of roles at the bank.  

“My tellers at the window aren’t just tellers anymore,” said Reil. “They are full-fledged customer service reps taking the phone calls and answering questions the best they can. It’s a manner of communicating with the customers and getting them what they need in the timeframe that they need it by shifting the resources we have.” 

“The dynamic of being a small business is going to change,” Sennholz added, “and being able to adapt and adjust will keep them going.”  

Managing Finances 

During any recovery, the best way that banks can be of assistance to small businesses is by doing what they do best: being the backbone of their communities in all economic scenarios.  

“One of the biggest challenges for all businesses will be access to resources as well as capital,” said Erickson. “For those at the bottom of the K, that’s difficult. So how do we help those people? It’s going to be so crucial for community banks to help provide those resources, capital, and education.”  

Assisting small businesses with financial development has truly been important. If society undergoes this permanent change as some predict, then training those smaller businesses on topics such as online payments and new distribution systems may be the difference between a business adapting and falling under, especially when many of those businesses don’t necessarily have access to those types of training or websites. 

“Small businesses have always had this resilience,” said Reil. “The ones that have survived have done so because that small business is who they are. It’s the lifestyle they’ve chosen to live. It’s unfortunate to see small businesses in my own community we’ve tried to help still struggle, but they haven’t given up. They’re committed because they know what they’re doing is right, and they’ll make it out the other side.” 

The commitment that many of these businesses have is commendable, but – as Reil added – it may very well not be enough to hold them afloat.  

“Money isn’t what drives them,” he continued. “Resiliency and passion are what drive them. But they need that monetary help to continue that passion.” 

And above all, even the combination of adaptability and financial support will only go so far. Optimism will be the key to success for businesses and bankers alike, and this begins from the top down.  

“Be flexible both internally and externally,” said Erickson. “Especially if you’re a leader during these times, have grace and understand that change is difficult.” 

“Be positive,” Sennholz said. “The news wants to make you focus on the negative, but you have to be positive. People listen to that positivity and that’s a necessary mindset during these times. They listen to it and they move forward.” 

If the best-case scenario occurs and we manage to escape the media’s focus on a K-shaped recovery, the hope for many is that the approach taken throughout this process offers a lesson on how to better deal with unforeseeable circumstances in the future. Even for the businesses faring well in smaller cities, returning to pre-pandemic operations is going to be a necessary goal to emerge successful.  

Until then, it’s important for banks to continue helping by providing support and education, and businesses to have a variety of flexible plans moving forward.  

“Are we going to learn something from all this?” Reil asked, pausing to reflect. “I sure hope so.”  

By, Alex Paniagua

February 12, 2021/by Jose De La Rosa
https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/istock-175471771-economy-1.jpg 500 810 Jose De La Rosa https://www.wisbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Wisconsin-Bankers-Association-logo.svg Jose De La Rosa2021-02-12 14:18:522021-10-13 14:43:26K-Shaped Recovery: The Role of Banks and Small Businesses
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