By Rose Oswald Poels, WBA president and CEO
Last week, WBA joined many of you at the 2026 Wisconsin Economic Forecast Luncheon that we co-sponsored in Madison. We look forward to this event every year! It serves as a dedicated opportunity to bring together bankers, policymakers, builders, realtors, and business leaders in a single room to review where the economy stands and what to expect in the months ahead.
This year, Dr. Robert Dietz, top economist at the National Association of Homebuilders, opened his presentation with his main thesis: The economy today is “good, not great.”
He explained that our country is not experiencing a downturn, but growth is slower than expected. Wisconsin grew at a 1.5 percent rate — which is stable — but still underperforming at the target 3 percent rate. The labor market remains relatively strong, with Wisconsin’s unemployment rate at 3.3 percent, below the national average of 4.3 percent. Regardless, global conflict, the change in input costs from tariffs, and shifts in policy are influencing decisions of businesses and the spending priorities of consumers.
Dr. Dietz focused on the current state of housing and how it reflects a “good, not great” economy. The housing cost continues to drive a significant share of inflation while persistent supply constraints — including labor shortages and regulatory burdens — slow down the pace of new building developments. Shelter inflation has been growing faster than overall inflation, and consumers are finding the cost of construction is too high relative to their household income.
Bankers are seeing these economic stressors in their own branches, reflected in lending activity and, consequently, the pace of growth in their communities. However, Wisconsinites do have reason to feel optimistic: Wisconsin’s housing market has remained stable as a result of the general affordability seen across the Midwest, which will likely continue to offer our communities a competitive edge in the years ahead.
Dr. Dietz’s presentation was followed by a panel discussion with Tim Schneider, president and CEO of Bank Five Nine, and Scott Hodek of the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development. From Schneider’s vantage point, credit quality is solid and housing activity in parts of the state continues to perform well, despite the higher-rate environment. Both panelists agreed that Wisconsin is facing a tight labor market, and many employers are struggling to fill open roles.
The luncheon was a great opportunity to ask questions about economic concerns and connect with other leaders on how these challenges are presenting within their own businesses. I want to thank our partners at WisPolitics, WisBusiness, and State Affairs for their collaboration on this event — I look forward to continuing the conversation in the months ahead!
