Republicans have controlled both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature since the 2010 elections, and this November, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping one, if not both, chambers. Republicans currently hold the Senate 18-15 and the Assembly 54-45. The Senate is the easier target for Democrats, since several Republican incumbents opted not to seek reelection, leaving open seats that are harder to defend. The math in the Assembly is more difficult, but if a blue wave materializes on November 3rd, nothing is out of the question.
Democrats need a net gain of five seats to reach a 50-seat Assembly majority. That’s a tall order, but consider how quickly the landscape has shifted: not long ago, Republicans held a 64-35 supermajority. The new legislative maps adopted ahead of the 2024 election cut that margin dramatically, and they have turned a handful of districts into genuine battlegrounds. Heading into the final six weeks, the chamber leans toward Republicans, but only slightly.
Regardless of which party wins, the Assembly will look very different in January. Nine Assembly Republicans are not returning, part of a broader wave of 15 GOP legislators stepping away, led by Speaker Robin Vos, the longest-serving speaker in state history. His departure sets off a leadership contest that will reshape committee gavels, floor strategy, and, most likely, the leadership and makeup of the Joint Finance Committee. Leadership elections take place after the election, with committee assignments following in December.
The open governor’s race between Republican Tom Tiffany and Democrat David Crowley will shape turnout in every Assembly district. Republican incumbents in swing districts have historically outrun the top of their ticket, but a strong enough wave can overwhelm even well-known local brands.
With so many open seats and new faces on the ballot, WBA’s Government Relations team has been meeting with legislative candidates across the state ahead of the November election. These in-district conversations introduce candidates to the role Wisconsin banks play in their communities and the issues that matter most to the industry, so that whoever takes office in January already knows WBA as a resource.
As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.
American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin
