Wisconsin’s general election is just over a month away, and regardless of the outcome, the state will have a new governor, assembly speaker, and Senate majority leader. This is the second update on our state’s gubernatorial and attorney general election.
Governor
After a tumultuous Democratic primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley edged out Madison Democratic Socialist and State Representative Francesca Hong by 4,000 votes to face Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany.
President Donald Trump, affordability, and data centers remain the defining issues of the campaign. Tiffany continues to brand his opponent “Data Center David Crowley,” while Crowley has worked to tie Tiffany to Trump through his congressional voting record. Trump’s approval rating remains under 40%.
The latest Marquette Law School Poll (released 9/30/26) shows the race tightening. Crowley leads Tiffany 49% to 46% among likely voters, with 5% undecided. In August, Crowley led 49% to 44%, so his support has held steady while Tiffany has picked up ground.
Independents may decide this race. They favor Crowley 44% to 18%, but 38% remain undecided, and both candidates have seen their images slip with this group. Crowley’s unfavorable rating among independents jumped from 25% to 39%, while his favorable rating fell from 26% to 18%. Tiffany’s unfavorables among independents rose from 41% to 50%, with his favorables dipping to 18%. With both campaigns and outside groups on the air, expect the final stretch to focus heavily on these voters.
As always, polls are snapshots in time, not predictions. Crowley holds a narrow edge heading into October, but this race is well within reach for both candidates.
Attorney General
Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul is again facing Republican Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney, a rematch of 2022, when Kaul won by about 35,000 votes. The two continue to spar over public safety, with Kaul pointing to violent crime reaching a 15-year low and Toney accusing him of “cherry-picking” data.
With five weeks to go, voters still know relatively little about either candidate. Kaul is viewed favorably by 22% and unfavorably by 18%, while 59% haven’t heard enough to form an opinion. Toney is viewed favorably by 11% and unfavorably by 12%, with 76% not having heard enough. Name recognition, and how each candidate uses paid media to build it, will likely be decisive.
Thank you for following along with our election coverage this fall. As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.
American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin
