The Road to November 3rd With WBA: Election Preview
Over the past seven weeks, the WBA has provided election updates on races at both the state and federal levels, showcasing the fluid landscape and its potential impact on the WBA and our members. Tomorrow is Election Day, and the nation’s collective eye will be on Wisconsin’s state legislative and gubernatorial races.
Nationwide, Republicans are facing a hostile environment as the cost of living and inflation continue to be at the top of voters’ minds. State lawmakers have little to no impact on the geopolitical forces driving oil prices; voters nationwide appear to be holding them accountable for decisions made by President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress.
In Wisconsin, the stakes could not be higher, as both the Senate and Assembly majorities are up for grabs. Since 2010, Republicans have controlled both houses of the state legislature, driving the legislative agenda for the last 16 years. As it stands today, that legislative reign appears to be coming to an end, as Democrats are projected to flip the State Senate, at a minimum (Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority). Democrats need only a net gain of two seats to reach a majority of 17; the consensus is that they will achieve this, if not more.
In the State Assembly, Republicans hold a 54-45 majority, so the math is certainly more difficult, but the environment for Republicans continues to get more difficult and hostile every day, so nothing is off the table.
No race has garnered more attention, or money, than the race between Congressman Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D-Milwaukee). Both candidates have tried to define the other as bad for Wisconsin. Congressman Tiffany defined Crowley as Milwaukee’s incompetent leader, and Crowley defined Congressman Tiffany as President Trump based on his congressional voting record.
The most recent, and final, Marquette Law School poll was released on October 28 and shows Democrat David Crowley with a 51% to 44% lead among likely voters.
Regardless of the political makeup outcome at the state level, we are guaranteed a new Governor, Assembly Speaker, Senate Majority Leader, and a whole new crop of state lawmakers. That’s why the WBA Government Relations team has been crisscrossing the state, meeting with candidates for office, as well as with both candidates for the Governor’s office. Regardless of outcomes, we’ll already have built-in relationships before the candidates assume office in January.
Shifting gears to the federal landscape, November 3 will decide how the rest of President Trump’s final two years in office go. The most likely scenario is that President Trump’s final two years in office will face an adversarial Congress, with both the House and Senate flipping to Democratic majorities.
In Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden faces a challenge from Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who has run against Congressman Van Orden before and lost narrowly. In this election, Cooke has been consistently up in polls, and Democrats feel this seat will flip and help their overall goal of flipping the House.
Another race worth watching is the 1st Congressional District, currently held by Republican Congressman Bryan Steil. In 2024, Congressman Steil won his reelection campaign 54-43. However, Democrats have very recently sensed a vulnerability and have dumped a significant amount of money into this race to unseat Steil, who is running against Democrat Mitchell Berman. Congressman Steil should be safe in this election, but if this race is closer than expected or Congressman Steil loses, it is safe to assume Democrats are having a very good night nationwide.
A week after the election, the WBA Government Relations team will host a post-election webinar. Join us on Tuesday, November 10, at 10:00 a.m. for a free webinar to discuss the November 3 midterm election. You can register here.
American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin
Thank you for your continued support of the WBA’s advocacy efforts!
As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the WBA Government Relations team.
