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Election Recap: Democrats Sweep Wisconsin and Take Control of Congress

Heading into election night, the consensus was that it would be a good night for Democrats nationwide; however, what unfolded for Democrats was not just good, but historic. From Texas to Wisconsin, Democratic momentum swept over the nation.

GOVERNOR: Crowley Defeats Tiffany

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won the open gubernatorial race and will become the state’s first Black governor. He beat Republican Tom Tiffany by about eight points. With roughly 98.5% of the expected vote counted, Crowley led 54.1% to 45.9%. The last Marquette Law School poll showed Crowley with a seven-point lead among likely voters. Tiffany conceded late Tuesday night. Crowley ran on a joint ticket with Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, who became lieutenant governor.

Democrats won every statewide office on the ballot. Attorney General Josh Kaul was reelected, JoCasta Zamarripa won Secretary of State, and Yee Leng Xiong flipped the Treasurer’s office by defeating the incumbent. As of early this morning, the constitutional amendment barring the governor from using the partial veto to create or raise taxes or fees had not been called at about 50.7% yes.

STATE LEGISLATURE: Democrats Achieve Majorities

Democrats won both houses of the Legislature for the first time in 18 years. Combined with Crowley’s win, that gives Democrats their first trifecta since the Doyle administration, giving them unilateral control of the legislative agenda and budget writing process.

State Senate: Democrats 18, Republicans 15
Democrats flipped three seats and held their own:

  • 5th SD: Rep. Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa) defeated Mike Roberts for the seat being vacated by Sen. Rob Hutton.
  • 21st SD: Trevor Jung (D) defeated Jim Croft for Sen. Van Wanggaard’s open seat.
  • 17th SD: Rep. Jenna Jacobson (D-Oregon) defeated Sen. Howard Marklein, who co-chairs the Joint Finance Committee and was first elected in 2014.
  • 31st SD (hold): Sen. Jeff Smith (D-Brunswick) defeated Michele Magadance Skinner.

State Assembly: Democrats 53, Republicans 46
Democrats needed to flip five seats. They flipped eight and held every one of their own:

  • Open GOP seats: Daniel Bukiewicz won the 21st AD (Rodriguez) and Becky Nichols won the 53rd AD (Kaufert).
  • GOP incumbents defeated in Harris-won districts: Novak in the 51st (lost to Ben Gruber), Donovan in the 61st (lost to Ben Brist), and Franklin in the 88th (lost to Brandy Tollefson).
  • GOP incumbents defeated in President Donald Trump-won districts: Zimmerman in the 30th (lost to Kevin Knoke), Snyder in the 85th (lost to John Kroll), and Moses in the 92nd (lost to Jeremiah Fredrickson).
  • Democratic holds: Doyle in the 94th, the only Democrat defending a Trump-won seat, along with Sheehan (26th), Spaude (89th), and Emerson (91st).

CONGRESS: Wisconsin Delegation Now Split 4-4

Democrats flipped two Republican-held House seats. Wisconsin’s delegation will be evenly divided for the first time in 16 years.

  • 1st CD (flip): Democrat Mitchell Berman of Raymond defeated Rep. Bryan Steil, roughly 52%-48%. The seat had been in Republican hands for three decades. Steil sits on the House Financial Services Committee, so the banking community loses a key voice.
  • 3rd CD (flip): Rebecca Cooke defeated Rep. Derrick Van Orden by almost seven points. That reverses their 2024 rematch, which Van Orden won by less than 3.
  • 7th CD (open, R hold): Republican Michael Alfonso defeated Fred Clark for Tiffany’s seat. Alfonso will be the youngest member of Congress.
  • Incumbents reelected: Mark Pocan (2nd, unopposed), Gwen Moore (4th), Scott Fitzgerald (5th), Glenn Grothman (6th), and Tony Wied (8th).

NATIONALLY: Democrats Win Both Chambers of Congress

Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, ending unified Republican control in Washington for President Trump’s final two years.

  • House: Republicans lost their slim majority. Projections put Democrats well above the 218 seats needed, with some estimates at 250 or more.
  • Senate: Democrats flipped seven Republican-held seats: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. That gives them about 54 seats, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled as of this morning. Chuck Schumer is in line to become majority leader.

Find out what this means for the banking industry by joining us for a free post-election webinar on November 10, at 10:00 a.m. You can register here.

If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the WBA Government Relations team.

 

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: Election Preview

Over the past seven weeks, the WBA has provided election updates on races at both the state and federal levels, showcasing the fluid landscape and its potential impact on the WBA and our members. Tomorrow is Election Day, and the nation’s collective eye will be on Wisconsin’s state legislative and gubernatorial races.

Nationwide, Republicans are facing a hostile environment as the cost of living and inflation continue to be at the top of voters’ minds. State lawmakers have little to no impact on the geopolitical forces driving oil prices; voters nationwide appear to be holding them accountable for decisions made by President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress.

In Wisconsin, the stakes could not be higher, as both the Senate and Assembly majorities are up for grabs. Since 2010, Republicans have controlled both houses of the state legislature, driving the legislative agenda for the last 16 years. As it stands today, that legislative reign appears to be coming to an end, as Democrats are projected to flip the State Senate, at a minimum (Republicans currently hold an 18-15 majority). Democrats need only a net gain of two seats to reach a majority of 17; the consensus is that they will achieve this, if not more.

In the State Assembly, Republicans hold a 54-45 majority, so the math is certainly more difficult, but the environment for Republicans continues to get more difficult and hostile every day, so nothing is off the table.

No race has garnered more attention, or money, than the race between Congressman Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D-Milwaukee). Both candidates have tried to define the other as bad for Wisconsin. Congressman Tiffany defined Crowley as Milwaukee’s incompetent leader, and Crowley defined Congressman Tiffany as President Trump based on his congressional voting record.

The most recent, and final, Marquette Law School poll was released on October 28 and shows Democrat David Crowley with a 51% to 44% lead among likely voters.

Regardless of the political makeup outcome at the state level, we are guaranteed a new Governor, Assembly Speaker, Senate Majority Leader, and a whole new crop of state lawmakers. That’s why the WBA Government Relations team has been crisscrossing the state, meeting with candidates for office, as well as with both candidates for the Governor’s office. Regardless of outcomes, we’ll already have built-in relationships before the candidates assume office in January.

Shifting gears to the federal landscape, November 3 will decide how the rest of President Trump’s final two years in office go. The most likely scenario is that President Trump’s final two years in office will face an adversarial Congress, with both the House and Senate flipping to Democratic majorities.

In Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden faces a challenge from Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who has run against Congressman Van Orden before and lost narrowly. In this election, Cooke has been consistently up in polls, and Democrats feel this seat will flip and help their overall goal of flipping the House.

Another race worth watching is the 1st Congressional District, currently held by Republican Congressman Bryan Steil. In 2024, Congressman Steil won his reelection campaign 54-43. However, Democrats have very recently sensed a vulnerability and have dumped a significant amount of money into this race to unseat Steil, who is running against Democrat Mitchell Berman. Congressman Steil should be safe in this election, but if this race is closer than expected or Congressman Steil loses, it is safe to assume Democrats are having a very good night nationwide.

A week after the election, the WBA Government Relations team will host a post-election webinar. Join us on Tuesday, November 10, at 10:00 a.m. for a free webinar to discuss the November 3 midterm election. You can register here.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

Thank you for your continued support of the WBA’s advocacy efforts!

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the WBA Government Relations team.

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: State Assembly Preview

Republicans have controlled both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature since the 2010 elections, and with less than two weeks until Election Day, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping one, if not both, chambers. Republicans currently hold the Senate 18-15 and the Assembly 54-45. The Senate remains the easier target. Democrats need to net just two seats, and two of the most competitive contests are open seats in suburban Milwaukee districts that former vice president and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried in 2024. In the 5th Senate District, Senator Rob Hutton is retiring. In the 21st, Senator Van Wanggaard is stepping down. The math in the Assembly is tougher, but if a blue wave materializes on November 3, nothing is off the table.

Democrats need a net gain of five seats to reach a 50-seat Assembly majority. That’s a tall order, but consider how quickly the landscape has shifted. Not long ago, Republicans held a 64-35 supermajority. The legislative maps adopted ahead of the 2024 election cut that margin dramatically, and they turned a handful of districts into genuine battlegrounds. Marquette Law School researcher John Johnson has identified nine Assembly seats likely to decide the majority: three lean Republican, three lean Democratic, and three are true toss-ups. Two seats to watch:

  • The 61st (Greendale and Hales Corners): Longtime Representative Bob Donovan has repeatedly outrun the top of his ticket in a district Harris won.
  • The 21st (Oak Creek): This seat became more competitive after Representative Jessie Rodriguez chose not to seek reelection.

Heading into the final stretch, the chamber still leans slightly toward Republicans; however, it is not unrealistic that Democrats flip the Assembly.

Regardless of which party wins, the Assembly will look very different in January. Nine Assembly Republicans are not returning. They are part of a broader wave of 15 GOP legislators stepping away, led by Speaker Robin Vos, the longest-serving speaker in state history. His departure sets off a leadership contest that will reshape committee gavels and floor strategy, and it will most likely change the leadership and makeup of the Joint Finance Committee. Leadership elections take place after the election, with committee assignments following in December.

The open governor’s race between Republican Tom Tiffany and Democrat David Crowley will shape turnout in every legislative district, and it remains close. The most recent Marquette Law School Poll, released September 30, showed Crowley leading 49% to 46% among likely voters. That is narrower than his five-point lead in August. Marquette’s final preelection poll is due October 28. Republican incumbents in swing districts have historically outrun the top of their ticket, but a strong enough wave can overwhelm even well-known local brands.

With so many open seats and new faces on the ballot, WBA’s Government Relations team has spent the fall meeting with legislative candidates statewide. These in-district conversations introduce candidates to the role Wisconsin banks play in their communities and the issues that matter most to the industry. That way, whoever takes office in January already knows WBA as a resource.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the WBA Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: State Senate Race Update

With three weeks until Election Day and absentee voting already underway, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping one or both legislative chambers. Republicans have held majorities in both houses since the 2010 election.

Republicans hold an 18-15 majority in the Senate. Only the 17 odd-numbered districts are on the ballot this year. Republicans hold 12 of them, so Democrats need a net gain of two seats to take control. Two factors make the Senate the more likely chamber to turn over:

  • Six of the 12 Republican incumbents up this cycle are not seeking reelection, including Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu.
  • Under the Clarke maps, the odd-numbered class is more Democratic than the even-numbered class the Republicans defended in 2024. Republicans currently hold three districts Kamala Harris carried in 2024: the 5th Senate District (Harris +5.8), the 17th Senate District (+1.0), and the 21st Senate District (+1.2).

The same four districts remain competitive. The latest campaign finance reports show where each party thinks the majority will be decided. Overall, Republicans have the larger war chest. The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate had nearly $5 million in the bank in late September, compared with $1.3 million for the State Senate Democratic Committee. Democrats are concentrating their resources in a few seats.

  • 17th Senate District (southwest Wisconsin): Senator Howard Marklein faces Representative Jenna Jacobson. This is the Democrats’ top priority. The Senate Democratic Committee transferred about $1.6 million to Rep. Jacobson’s campaign this summer, and the national Democratic legislative committee lists it among its ten most important races in the country. Sen. Marklein has historically run several points ahead of other Republicans in his district.
  • 21st Senate District (Racine and southern Milwaukee County): This open seat has become the most expensive race on the map. Trevor Jung and his Democratic allies have reserved $3.3 million in TV time since the primary, compared with $1.5 million for Republican candidate Jim Croft and his allies. Republicans have focused attention on a complaint, now under review by the Racine County District Attorney, alleging that Jung campaigned on city time. No charging decision has been made.
  • 5th Senate District (West Allis and eastern Waukesha County): This open seat pits Representative Robyn Vining against Republican newcomer Mike Roberts. Rep. Vining has raised more in direct contributions than Roberts. Roberts has received more than $145,000 in in-kind support from state Republican committees.
  • 31st Senate District (Eau Claire): This is still Republicans’ only realistic pickup opportunity, and they are investing heavily in it. The Republican Senate Committee has spent roughly $865,000 supporting county board member Michele Magadance Skinner. Her side’s ad reservations exceed $1 million, compared with $646,000 for Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith. A court rejected Democrats’ attempt to remove Skinner from the ballot over her residency. Democrats have made that issue the centerpiece of their advertising.

Marquette’s John Johnson continues to rate the 5th, 21st, and 31st Senate Districts as “Lean D,” the 17th Senate District as a “Tossup,” and the chamber as “Lean D.” He notes that Democrats can reach a majority by winning only the seven seats he classifies as “Safe” or “Lean D.” He has also argued that the top of the ticket matters more than money in these races. The governor’s race remains close: the September 30 Marquette poll had Democrat David Crowley at 49% and Republican Tom Tiffany at 46% among likely voters.

The personnel consequences for WBA arrive either way. Senator Marklein co-chairs the Joint Finance Committee and is in the closest race on the board. Senator LeMahieu and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are both leaving. At least a third of the Senate Republican caucus will turn over in 2027, so many of the members who handle banking legislation next session will be new. With the open governor’s race on top of that, any outcome will require substantial relationship-building in January.

Regardless of the outcome, WBA is well-positioned to advocate for our members, their customers, and their employees. The WBA Government Relations team has been traveling the state to meet candidates for office and introduce them to WBA and the issues we care about.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the WBA Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: Congressional Update

As control of the Legislature hangs in the balance in Madison, so does the balance of power in our nation’s capital. Historically, midterms have been rough for the sitting president’s party. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in about 90% of midterm elections, with an average loss of roughly 28 seats. The president’s party loses Senate seats about 70% of the time, averaging about four seats. When a president faces low approval ratings, as President Donald Trump does today, those losses can be even greater.

Republicans retain a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold 218 seats and Democrats hold 214, with one independent, who continues to meet with the Republican conference, and two vacancies. Republicans hold the Senate majority with 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. All to say, the margin of error for Republicans is thin in both chambers.

With less than a month until Election Day, forecasters have moved further toward Democrats. The Cook Political Report now projects Democrats will win control of the House and rates the fight for the Senate a true toss-up, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to win the majority. A shift in either chamber would make it far more difficult for President Trump to advance his agenda in his final two years and would put new leadership in charge of the House Financial Services Committee, the panel with jurisdiction over banking policy. Two Wisconsin congressional seats will play a pivotal role in shaping the balance of power in Washington, D.C.

The 1st Congressional District has become more competitive than many expected, though Republican incumbent Representative Bryan Steil remains the favorite. The district stretches across southeastern Wisconsin, including Racine, Kenosha, Janesville, and Beloit, and Republicans have held the seat for more than three decades. Rep. Steil won reelection with 54% in 2024 and holds a substantial financial advantage. Democrat Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse from Racine County, won the August primary. In September, national Democrats added the seat to their list of top pickup targets, and the Cook Political Report shifted the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Polling released by Democrats shows a close race, and outside Republican groups have stepped up spending to protect Rep. Steil. Even so, the district’s long Republican history and Rep. Steil’s fundraising edge make it an uphill climb for Berman.

The 3rd Congressional District remains the most competitive of Wisconsin’s congressional races and one of the most closely watched in the country. Republican incumbent Representative Derrick Van Orden is seeking a third term in a western Wisconsin district that includes La Crosse and Eau Claire. Democrat Rebecca Cooke won her August primary by double digits, setting up a rematch after she lost to Rep. Van Orden by less than three points in 2024, even as President Trump carried the district by seven. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, one of only a handful of Republican-held seats with that rating nationally. Cooke has outraised Rep. Van Orden this cycle, while Rep. Van Orden entered the general election with more cash on hand and the advantages of incumbency. With both parties treating the district as a must-win, expect heavy spending and advertising through Election Day.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: Governor and Attorney General Race

Wisconsin’s general election is just over a month away, and regardless of the outcome, the state will have a new governor, assembly speaker, and Senate majority leader. This is the second update on our state’s gubernatorial and attorney general election.

Governor

After a tumultuous Democratic primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley edged out Madison Democratic Socialist and State Representative Francesca Hong by 4,000 votes to face Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany.

President Donald Trump, affordability, and data centers remain the defining issues of the campaign. Tiffany continues to brand his opponent “Data Center David Crowley,” while Crowley has worked to tie Tiffany to Trump through his congressional voting record. Trump’s approval rating remains under 40%.

The latest Marquette Law School Poll (released 9/30/26) shows the race tightening. Crowley leads Tiffany 49% to 46% among likely voters, with 5% undecided. In August, Crowley led 49% to 44%, so his support has held steady while Tiffany has picked up ground.

Independents may decide this race. They favor Crowley 44% to 18%, but 38% remain undecided, and both candidates have seen their images slip with this group. Crowley’s unfavorable rating among independents jumped from 25% to 39%, while his favorable rating fell from 26% to 18%. Tiffany’s unfavorables among independents rose from 41% to 50%, with his favorables dipping to 18%. With both campaigns and outside groups on the air, expect the final stretch to focus heavily on these voters.

As always, polls are snapshots in time, not predictions. Crowley holds a narrow edge heading into October, but this race is well within reach for both candidates.

Attorney General

Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul is again facing Republican Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney, a rematch of 2022, when Kaul won by about 35,000 votes. The two continue to spar over public safety, with Kaul pointing to violent crime reaching a 15-year low and Toney accusing him of “cherry-picking” data.

With five weeks to go, voters still know relatively little about either candidate. Kaul is viewed favorably by 22% and unfavorably by 18%, while 59% haven’t heard enough to form an opinion. Toney is viewed favorably by 11% and unfavorably by 12%, with 76% not having heard enough. Name recognition, and how each candidate uses paid media to build it, will likely be decisive.

Thank you for following along with our election coverage this fall. As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: State Assembly Race

Republicans have controlled both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature since the 2010 elections, and this November, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping one, if not both, chambers. Republicans currently hold the Senate 18-15 and the Assembly 54-45. The Senate is the easier target for Democrats, since several Republican incumbents opted not to seek reelection, leaving open seats that are harder to defend. The math in the Assembly is more difficult, but if a blue wave materializes on November 3rd, nothing is out of the question.

Democrats need a net gain of five seats to reach a 50-seat Assembly majority. That’s a tall order, but consider how quickly the landscape has shifted: not long ago, Republicans held a 64-35 supermajority. The new legislative maps adopted ahead of the 2024 election cut that margin dramatically, and they have turned a handful of districts into genuine battlegrounds. Heading into the final six weeks, the chamber leans toward Republicans, but only slightly.

Regardless of which party wins, the Assembly will look very different in January. Nine Assembly Republicans are not returning, part of a broader wave of 15 GOP legislators stepping away, led by Speaker Robin Vos, the longest-serving speaker in state history. His departure sets off a leadership contest that will reshape committee gavels, floor strategy, and, most likely, the leadership and makeup of the Joint Finance Committee. Leadership elections take place after the election, with committee assignments following in December.

The open governor’s race between Republican Tom Tiffany and Democrat David Crowley will shape turnout in every Assembly district. Republican incumbents in swing districts have historically outrun the top of their ticket, but a strong enough wave can overwhelm even well-known local brands.

With so many open seats and new faces on the ballot, WBA’s Government Relations team has been meeting with legislative candidates across the state ahead of the November election. These in-district conversations introduce candidates to the role Wisconsin banks play in their communities and the issues that matter most to the industry, so that whoever takes office in January already knows WBA as a resource.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: State Senate Race

Republicans have held majorities in both houses since the 2010 election, and this November, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping one or both chambers.

Republicans hold an 18-15 majority in the Senate. Only the 17 odd-numbered districts are on the ballot this year, and Republicans hold 12 of them, so Democrats need a net gain of two seats to take control. Two things make the Senate the more likely of the two chambers to turn over. Six of the 12 Republican incumbents up this cycle have announced they will not seek reelection, including Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu. More importantly, the odd-numbered class is more Democratic under the Clarke maps than the even-numbered class Republicans defended in 2024. Republicans currently hold three districts presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried in 2024: the 5th (Harris +5.8), the 17th (+1.0), and the 21st (+1.2).

Four Senate districts are competitive. In the open 5th, covering West Allis and eastern Waukesha County, Rep. Robyn Vining faces Republican newcomer Mike Roberts. In the open 21st, covering Racine and southern Milwaukee County, former Racine alder Trevor Jung faces Franklin businessman Jim Croft. In the 31st, around Eau Claire, Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith faces county board member Michele Magadance Skinner, the only plausible Republican pickup opportunity on the map. The race drawing the most attention is the 17th, where Rep. Jenna Jacobson won the August 11 Democratic primary and now faces Senator Howard Marklein. Sen. Marklein is the only Republican incumbent among the four battlegrounds who stayed in the race. Marquette’s John Johnson rates the 5th, 21st, and 31st as Lean D, the 17th a Tossup, and the chamber Lean D, noting that Democrats can reach a majority by winning only the seven seats he classifies as Safe or Lean D.

The personnel consequences for WBA arrive either way. Sen. Marklein co-chairs Joint Finance and is in the closest race on the board. Sen. LeMahieu and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are both leaving. With at least a third of the Senate Republican caucus turning over in 2027, a large share of the members who will handle banking legislation next session will be new. Add the open governor’s race and there is a substantial amount of relationship-building to do in January under any outcome.

Regardless of the outcome, the WBA is well-poised to advocate for our members, their customers, and employees. The WBA government relations team has been traveling the state, meeting with candidates for office, introducing them to the WBA, our government relations team, and the issues we care about.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: Congressional Update

As the balance of power in Madison hangs in the balance, so does it in our nation’s capital. Historically, midterms have been very rough for a sitting president’s party. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost House seats in about 90% of midterm elections. The average loss is roughly 28 seats. The president’s party loses Senate seats about 70% of the time, averaging about four seats. If a president, like Donald Trump, faces an uphill battle for support, those losses can be even greater.

The Republican Party retains control of the House of Representatives with a slim majority. Republicans currently hold 218 seats while the Democrats have 214. Republicans hold the Senate majority with 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. All to say, the margin of error for Republicans is slim.

Current forecasts show Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives and a slight edge in retaking control of the Senate, which would stifle President Trump’s agenda and make him a lame-duck president. Two Wisconsin congressional seats will play a pivotal role in shaping the balance of power in D.C.

The 1st Congressional District is shaping up as a race Democrats believe could become competitive, though Republican incumbent Bryan Steil remains the favorite. The district stretches across southeastern Wisconsin, including Racine, Kenosha, Janesville and Beloit, and Republicans have held the seat for more than three decades. Steil won reelection with 54% in 2024 and has a substantial financial advantage. Democrat Mitchell Berman, a Racine County nurse, won the August primary. National Democrats have specifically identified this seat as a pickup opportunity, but the district’s long Republican history and Steil’s fundraising make it an uphill challenge.

The 3rd Congressional District is to be the most competitive race among Wisconsin’s congressional seats. Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden is seeking another term in a western Wisconsin district that includes La Crosse and Eau Claire and has become increasingly competitive. Democrat Rebecca Cooke won her primary in August with 60% of the vote, setting up a rematch with Van Orden after she narrowly lost to him in 2024. Cooke enters the general election with strong national Democratic support and significant fundraising, while Van Orden also has substantial financial resources and the advantages of incumbency. With Democrats targeting the district as one of their top opportunities to gain a House seat, this race is shaping up as a major battleground nationally.

Next week, we will highlight the Senate races in Wisconsin.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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The Road to November 3rd With WBA: Governor and Attorney General Update

We’re officially two months away from Wisconsin’s general election, and regardless of the outcome, the state will have a new governor, assembly speaker, and Senate majority leader. Over the next eight weeks, WBA will highlight races and power balances that will shape the legislative environment for years to come.

Following a tumultuous Democratic primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley beat proclaimed Madison Democratic Socialist and State Representative Francesca Hong by 4,000 votes and will face off against Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany.

President Donald Trump, affordability, and data centers appear to be the defining issues of the campaign. Tiffany has already begun calling Crowley “Data Center David Crowley.” Conversely, Crowley is tying Tiffany to Trump, citing his voting record in Congress, accusing him of being “hand in fist” with Trump on important issues. Trump is polling at historic lows both in Wisconsin and nationally. At the time of writing, Trump’s approval rating is under 40%.

The first poll from Marquette University Law School shows Crowley leading Tiffany among likely voters, 49–44. It’s important to remember that polls are just snapshots in time; they are not directional, but nonetheless, you’d certainly prefer to be Crowley at this junction in the race.

Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul is once again facing off against Republican Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney. In 2022, Kaul narrowly defeated Toney by 35,000 votes. The two candidates are currently sparring over public safety, with Kaul touting a drop in violent crime, hitting a 15-year low. Toney has been accusing him of “cherry-picking” data.

The general population knows far less about the candidates for attorney general. The most recent polling shows that 61% haven’t heard enough about Kaul to give an opinion, and that number climbs to 80% for Toney. Both candidates will spend the next two months traversing the state to boost their name ID.

Next week, we will highlight the congressional races in Wisconsin.

As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.

American Bankers Association and WBA Wisconsin Get Out to Vote Toolkit

American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin

My Vote Wisconsin

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