The Road to November 3rd With WBA: State Senate Race Update
With three weeks until Election Day and absentee voting already underway, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping one or both legislative chambers. Republicans have held majorities in both houses since the 2010 election.
Republicans hold an 18-15 majority in the Senate. Only the 17 odd-numbered districts are on the ballot this year. Republicans hold 12 of them, so Democrats need a net gain of two seats to take control. Two factors make the Senate the more likely chamber to turn over:
- Six of the 12 Republican incumbents up this cycle are not seeking reelection, including Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu.
- Under the Clarke maps, the odd-numbered class is more Democratic than the even-numbered class the Republicans defended in 2024. Republicans currently hold three districts Kamala Harris carried in 2024: the 5th Senate District (Harris +5.8), the 17th Senate District (+1.0), and the 21st Senate District (+1.2).
The same four districts remain competitive. The latest campaign finance reports show where each party thinks the majority will be decided. Overall, Republicans have the larger war chest. The Committee to Elect a Republican Senate had nearly $5 million in the bank in late September, compared with $1.3 million for the State Senate Democratic Committee. Democrats are concentrating their resources in a few seats.
- 17th Senate District (southwest Wisconsin): Senator Howard Marklein faces Representative Jenna Jacobson. This is the Democrats’ top priority. The Senate Democratic Committee transferred about $1.6 million to Rep. Jacobson’s campaign this summer, and the national Democratic legislative committee lists it among its ten most important races in the country. Sen. Marklein has historically run several points ahead of other Republicans in his district.
- 21st Senate District (Racine and southern Milwaukee County): This open seat has become the most expensive race on the map. Trevor Jung and his Democratic allies have reserved $3.3 million in TV time since the primary, compared with $1.5 million for Republican candidate Jim Croft and his allies. Republicans have focused attention on a complaint, now under review by the Racine County District Attorney, alleging that Jung campaigned on city time. No charging decision has been made.
- 5th Senate District (West Allis and eastern Waukesha County): This open seat pits Representative Robyn Vining against Republican newcomer Mike Roberts. Rep. Vining has raised more in direct contributions than Roberts. Roberts has received more than $145,000 in in-kind support from state Republican committees.
- 31st Senate District (Eau Claire): This is still Republicans’ only realistic pickup opportunity, and they are investing heavily in it. The Republican Senate Committee has spent roughly $865,000 supporting county board member Michele Magadance Skinner. Her side’s ad reservations exceed $1 million, compared with $646,000 for Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith. A court rejected Democrats’ attempt to remove Skinner from the ballot over her residency. Democrats have made that issue the centerpiece of their advertising.
Marquette’s John Johnson continues to rate the 5th, 21st, and 31st Senate Districts as “Lean D,” the 17th Senate District as a “Tossup,” and the chamber as “Lean D.” He notes that Democrats can reach a majority by winning only the seven seats he classifies as “Safe” or “Lean D.” He has also argued that the top of the ticket matters more than money in these races. The governor’s race remains close: the September 30 Marquette poll had Democrat David Crowley at 49% and Republican Tom Tiffany at 46% among likely voters.
The personnel consequences for WBA arrive either way. Senator Marklein co-chairs the Joint Finance Committee and is in the closest race on the board. Senator LeMahieu and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are both leaving. At least a third of the Senate Republican caucus will turn over in 2027, so many of the members who handle banking legislation next session will be new. With the open governor’s race on top of that, any outcome will require substantial relationship-building in January.
Regardless of the outcome, WBA is well-positioned to advocate for our members, their customers, and their employees. The WBA Government Relations team has been traveling the state to meet candidates for office and introduce them to WBA and the issues we care about.
As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the WBA Government Relations team.
American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin
