The Road to November 3rd With WBA: State Senate Race
Republicans have held majorities in both houses since the 2010 election, and this November, Democrats have a realistic chance of flipping one or both chambers.
Republicans hold an 18-15 majority in the Senate. Only the 17 odd-numbered districts are on the ballot this year, and Republicans hold 12 of them, so Democrats need a net gain of two seats to take control. Two things make the Senate the more likely of the two chambers to turn over. Six of the 12 Republican incumbents up this cycle have announced they will not seek reelection, including Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu. More importantly, the odd-numbered class is more Democratic under the Clarke maps than the even-numbered class Republicans defended in 2024. Republicans currently hold three districts presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried in 2024: the 5th (Harris +5.8), the 17th (+1.0), and the 21st (+1.2).
Four Senate districts are competitive. In the open 5th, covering West Allis and eastern Waukesha County, Rep. Robyn Vining faces Republican newcomer Mike Roberts. In the open 21st, covering Racine and southern Milwaukee County, former Racine alder Trevor Jung faces Franklin businessman Jim Croft. In the 31st, around Eau Claire, Democratic incumbent Jeff Smith faces county board member Michele Magadance Skinner, the only plausible Republican pickup opportunity on the map. The race drawing the most attention is the 17th, where Rep. Jenna Jacobson won the August 11 Democratic primary and now faces Senator Howard Marklein. Sen. Marklein is the only Republican incumbent among the four battlegrounds who stayed in the race. Marquette’s John Johnson rates the 5th, 21st, and 31st as Lean D, the 17th a Tossup, and the chamber Lean D, noting that Democrats can reach a majority by winning only the seven seats he classifies as Safe or Lean D.
The personnel consequences for WBA arrive either way. Sen. Marklein co-chairs Joint Finance and is in the closest race on the board. Sen. LeMahieu and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are both leaving. With at least a third of the Senate Republican caucus turning over in 2027, a large share of the members who will handle banking legislation next session will be new. Add the open governor’s race and there is a substantial amount of relationship-building to do in January under any outcome.
Regardless of the outcome, the WBA is well-poised to advocate for our members, their customers, and employees. The WBA government relations team has been traveling the state, meeting with candidates for office, introducing them to the WBA, our government relations team, and the issues we care about.
As always, if you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either Tyler Foti or Chris Borgerding from the Government Relations team.
American Bankers Association Key Election Dates for Wisconsin
