WBA releases results of Bank CEO Economic Conditions Survey
In the Wisconsin Bankers Association’s biannual Economic Conditions Survey of Wisconsin bank CEOs, nearly three quarters of respondents rated Wisconsin’s current economic health as “excellent” or “good.” These most recent survey results show some easing of inflation and recession concerns; 86% of respondents predict inflation to fall or stay about the same over the next six months, compared to 76% of respondents in the prior survey conducted at the end of 2022. Pessimism is fading as only 48% of respondents predict the economy to worsen over the next six months, compared to 72% of respondents at the close of 2022.
“Wisconsin bank CEOs have unique knowledge of their local market dynamics, given their economic expertise along with their relationships with businesses, community organizations, families, and individuals in their areas,” said WBA President and CEO Rose Oswald Poels. “With a mild recession predicted for the remainder of the year, bankers continue to serve as trusted partners in helping community members weather challenges and achieve their financial goals.“
Among the economic bright spots cited by CEOs in the survey were high employment and wages, demand for goods and services, strong industries — summer tourism, construction, agriculture, and manufacturing — and in-migration from the Twin Cities and Chicago. Top economic concerns reported by bank CEOs were inflation and labor — particularly in service-related industries, deposit growth, and compressing interest rate margins.
The mid-year 2023 survey was conducted May 16–31 with 66 respondents. Sums may not equal 100 percent due to rounding. Below is a breakdown of the survey questions and responses.
| How would you rate the current health of the Wisconsin economy. . . | Mid-Year 2023 | End-of-Year 2022 | Mid-Year 2022 |
| Excellent | 5% | 6% | 7% |
| Good | 68% | 69% | 64% |
| Fair | 27% | 24% | 29% |
| Poor | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| In the next six months, do you expect the Wisconsin economy to. . . | |||
| Grow | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Weaken | 48% | 72% | 63% |
| Stay the same | 52% | 28% | 36% |
| Over the next six months, do you expect inflation to. . . | |||
| Rise | 14% | 24% | 50% |
| Fall | 44% | 51% | 22% |
| Stay about the same | 42% | 25% | 28% |
| How likely would you say a recession is in the next six months? | |||
| Very unlikely | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| Unlikely | 5% | 3% | 16% |
| Neutral | 24% | 10% | 20% |
| Likely | 56% | 62% | 45% |
| Very likely | 15% | 25% | 16% |
| Rate the current demand in the following categories: | |||
| Business Loans | |||
| Excellent | 6% | 3% | 2% |
| Good | 44% | 44% | 48% |
| Fair | 48% | 46% | 48% |
| Poor | 2% | 7% | 2% |
| Commercial Real Estate Loans | |||
| Excellent | 11% | 6% | 7% |
| Good | 33% | 34% | 52% |
| Fair | 50% | 53% | 36% |
| Poor | 6% | 7% | 5% |
| Residential Real Estate Loans | |||
| Excellent | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| Good | 14% | 7% | 20% |
| Fair | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Poor | 31% | 55% | 29% |
| Agricultural Loans | |||
| Excellent | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Good | 41% | 23% | 37% |
| Fair | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Poor | 9% | 13% | 10% |
| Deposit | |||
| Excellent | 3% | 3% | 5% |
| Good | 17% | 44% | 55% |
| Fair | 58% | 44% | 38% |
| Poor | 23% | 9% | 2% |
| In the next six months, do you anticipate the demand for the following categories will. . . | |||
| Business Loans | |||
| Grow | 6% | 8% | 11% |
| Weaken | 50% | 56% | 48% |
| Stay the same | 44% | 35% | 41% |
| Commercial Real Estate Loans | |||
| Grow | 9% | 1% | 13% |
| Weaken | 56% | 63% | 48% |
| Stay the same | 35% | 35% | 39% |
| Residential Real Estate Loans | |||
| Grow | 13% | 6% | 4% |
| Weaken | 25% | 54% | 63% |
| Stay the same | 62% | 41% | 34% |
| Agricultural Loans | |||
| Grow | 12% | 15% | 6% |
| Weaken | 32% | 38% | 31% |
| Stay the same | 56% | 48% | 63% |
| Deposit | |||
| Grow | 17% | 13% | 11% |
| Weaken | 31% | 38% | 36% |
| Stay the same | 52% | 49% | 53% |
| In the next six months, are the businesses in your bank’s market area likely to. . . | |||
| Hire employees | 25% | 17% | 31% |
| Maintain current staffing levels | 69% | 71% | 61% |
| Lay off employees | 6% | 11% | 7% |
| In the next six months, is your bank likely to. . . | |||
| Hire employees | 23% | 23% | 34% |
| Maintain current staffing levels | 74% | 73% | 63% |
| Lay off employees | 3% | 4% | 4% |
